The best UK cities for Trick or Treating 2017

In his Sunday Proptech Review, James Dearsley threw down the gauntlet for a UK company to take up an interesting challenge. Every year the American on line real estate data company, Zillow, use their analytics to create a light hearted look at the best cities in which to Trick or Treat.

So being a team that never shirk from a challenge, we at Houseprice.AI, have just crunched the numbers to find the best cities in the UK for your little monsters to score the most treats. Similar to the US based index, these cities have a population of at least 500,000 souls and are based on median home sales values, and favour those locations where the demographics show there are more children aged 10 and under and where there is high residential property density, meaning less walking from door-to-door. Lastly, because this is the country that brought Harry Potter to the world and is a global leader in potions and spells, we have added a little extra to the index, in the form of Gross Disposable Household Income. After all, you obviously would want to be knocking on doors where sweets are most likely to be lurking!

Check out the complete Trick-or-Treat Index, and the top areas in each city, below. Click on the map to see how your local area measures up on Trick-or-Treat Index!

Name Population Child Rating Median Price TT Index
Birmingham 2440986 96.85% 165k 67.96
Leeds 1777934 82.56% 162k 58.95
London 9787426 89.31% 495k 53.76
Bristol 617280 82.59% 245k 49.99
Manchester 2553379 88.72% 142k 47.55
Sheffield 685368 76.49% 130k 46.88
Leicester 508916 93.30% 175k 43.52
Liverpool 864122 73.54% 127k 41.82
Newcastle 774891 74.35% 132k 39.08
Southampton 855569 78.97% 260k 39.01
Nottingham 729977 81.32% 142k 38.17

The Houseprice AI Trick-or-Treat index is made up three equally weighted variables, the median sales price, the Regional gross disposable household income (GDHI) by each Local Authority and the proportion of all children up to and including 10 years of age as a percentage of the whole population by each Local Authority. Each of these variables is compared to the highest value nationally to create the component variable. The index is based on a sample of 149,783 property transactions from all cities and urban groupings in the UK with a population of over 500,000.

Happy Halloween from the team at Houseprice.AI!

If you would like to know more information about Houseprice.AI , Horizon, or access to our API please feel free to contact us at info@houseprice.ai.


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At Houseprice.AI we believe that transparency, honesty and consistency are the drivers of success. This vision is what drives us in providing our customers with the best quantifiable valuation of residential property in the market. By combining Big Data and AI with our experience, we continuously improve our machine valuation model (MVM) ensuring that we are are at the forefront of the Proptech/Fintech boundary. Are you using AI in your business yet? If not it might be costing you an arm and a leg.

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Horizon introduces the most advanced property valuation report on the market.

Here is what’s new.

We have been listening to all our users feedback and we are now excited to share a cleaner, improved, more usable and readable value report. It is reactive to mobile and tablets and it still has the beloved features like area analytics, custom branding, chat, social media integration, 360 photo support and viewers tracking.

Horizon is designed for property professionals, estate agents, surveyors, investors and developers, our new amazing customised reactive marketing reports are fast and precise and are used to get objective information for key decisions in property buying, capital appreciation, development value and rental returns.

Horizon covers the entire UK and can value any property using AI. Click the button to see an example Buyers report.

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The Horizon App is powered by Houseprice.AI, the most accurate machine valuation model API to determine residential property values, forecast 3-year returns and to estimate rental returns.

Using Bigdata, Houseprice.AI MVM aggregates millions of data elements, including more than 20 years of property data and continuously evolving proprietary calculations and analytics, to accurately define and forecast values and market influences.

Big, clean data is required for the analytics we do. We have built, and will continue to build, the most complete property data set in the marketplace. Every data element we include is based on clear reasoning for why this factor matters. We monitor the most specific details about a given property, the broadest macroeconomic factors, and everything in between.

Uber Alleys

The news on Friday that Transport for London (TfL) had denied Uber an Operator Licence for the capital has stirred up some intense feelings. TfL announced Uber “not fit and proper” to hold a private hire licence and that the company had shown a “lack of corporate responsibility” in relation to public safety. As soon as the judgment was announced the company stated its intention to challenge the ruling in the courts and a petition was launched which is now well on the way to reaching 800,000 signatures. TfL are now saying Uber needs to rethink its approach.

Uber claim that 3.5 million Londoners rely on them to get around London, so we thought that we would look to see exactly where these Londoners are using the App. To do this we used Uber’s own API to get waiting times from 1000 randomly selected locations across Greater London that were within a 50 km radius of Charing Cross and cross referenced it against some known property metrics.

Uber Response Rates

Please click the map above to view our reactive study maps. You can click on the maps to reveal information, and double click on them and select areas.

So what did we find? Well overall across the random sample of 1000 covering the most of Greater London, the average response time was 432 seconds, or 7 min 12 seconds, however the attached visualization shows that much like property values, response times lengthened dramatically for a few postcodes the further away from Central London you travelled. This is not so surprising, you would expect more Ubers to be located in the busy central areas.

Please click the map to view our reactive study maps

However what is interesting is that actual response rates were very similar over a much larger area of London than you would expect and pretty fast too, with 2 to 3 minutes not unusual. The second chart shows the average price per square meter for properties in the same postcode areas. So if Uber were just used in central areas, you might expect the same distribution of response times as say, property prices/housing density, but as you can see, it is clearly not. In fact, response times in Outer London are very similar to Inner London and spread quite evenly, suggesting Ubers really are used by Londoners at pretty consistent levels all across the capital.
Uber Response Times Central London vs Outer London Please click the chart above to view our reactive study maps

As the chart above shows, even if you live in outer London (Green) you can have response times that are as fast as the most well served and expensive central areas (Red). So it would be very fair to say that if you are living in the most exclusive part of London, or indeed the cheapest bargain basement, in both cases your access to Uber in London's streets and alleys is about the same. That makes it a egalitarian mode of transport. This, all too often, is not the same for other modes of transportation across the capital that serve Londoners and suggests that TfL will need to rethink as much as Uber will have to smarten up its operations.

If you would like to see where the location you live ranks in London for Uber, or how other areas compare then please feel free to try out this link for our interactive charts on transportation and London property .

An extract of this blog post was written for http://www.jamesdearsley.co.uk/

The Trouble with Housing Bubbles

Is there a housing bubble? Since the Brexit referendum the news has been filled with threats about a possible housing crash. Tabloid scaremongering with headlines back in July like “ Britain 'is on the brink of housing price collapse' in the Daily Mail Online, and Britain on 'edge of worst house price collapse since 1990s' in the Sun. Now, however, they seem to be back peddling as the Halifax house price index shows that house prices have not dramatically fallen through the floor.

The house price index shows that in some cities like Leeds and Manchester house prices are still on the up. So, there isn’t one bubble, there are many bubbles, so it is less like one big Lindor and more like an Aero.Or because financial institutions and Governments like stability, more like a Crunchie. These housing bubbles have not exactly burst but now homeowners who have basked in rising prices for years will have to get used to slower rates of growth or maybe even a drop in the value of their home. But a generation of renters faced with increasingly unattainable property prices, when prices are much higher than incomes can afford, will be relieved to see the market cool off so that they can afford to get on the property ladder.

Mortgage lenders rushed to offer lower mortgage rates earlier this year to encourage home ownership.However, there is a lot of speculation that the Bank of England may raise interest rates to curb inflation soon, and this will make it harder for people on variable rate mortgages to repay them. High ownership ratio combined with an increased rate of low Mortgage rates may signal higher debt levels associated with bubbles.

While people are paying high rental prices they cannot also afford to enter an expensive market. At present, many first time buyers are looking to have to save as much as £33,000 just for a deposit, with an average income this just is not possible, certainly not quickly, and this slows the market. There need to be first time buyers to keep the chains alive. When the market stagnates, vendors have no choice but to lower their asking prices. This produces a small scale cycle resembling the fox and rabbit ecology model.

In November 2015 The House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee launched a new inquiry into the economics of the UK housing market. The Committee investigates the supply and affordability of housing across the housing market and reviews the effectiveness of the Government's policies to provide low cost housing to rent and to buy. Lord Hollick, Chairman of the Committee, commented: "There are clearly serious issues with the UK housing market. Across the country, young people in particular are struggling with the cost of housing, whether they are looking to buy or rent. There is an affordability crisis in housing.”

Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government, Sajid Javid, made a statement in the Commons on local housing needs yesterday. Speaking in the House of Commons, Javid said that if lasting change is to be made, a proper understanding of how many homes are needed, and where, is required, and the existing system “is not good enough”. He said a “consistent approach” is a necessity. If we stay with the fox and rabbit model, the Government is trying here to introduce some wild hares.

An ONS study published 4th December 2016 found that 1 in 4 young adults are living with their parents. If cheaper housing stock appears on the market, these boomerang children will be able to afford a place of their own. Parents living in an empty nest are then able to downsize, and therefore make more family properties available.

The Guardian has reported a positive outlook on 12th August. Martin Beck at consultancy Oxford Economics said there was a lack of drivers to push up house price growth but equally an absence of the kind of forces which have typically caused prices to fall. “UK house price growth is running out of steam. And with household incomes squeezed and the affordability of housing stretched, we think a prolonged period of very modest growth lies ahead. But the prospect of a crash is remote,” he said.

Thomas Fisher, an economist at PwC, said: “Factoring in continued pressure on household incomes in the second half of the year, we anticipate a likely weakening in UK house price inflation to around 4pc on average for 2017.”

So maybe these bubbles won’t exactly burst, but like a whoopee cushion, let out a little sigh.


Acknowledgements:
https://www.halifax.co.uk
https://www.pwc.co.uk/
https://www.gov.uk
https://www.theguardian.com
https://www.ons.gov.uk/